The UK economy is all set to retain its status as the world’s fifth-biggest in 2021 and overtake its biggest competitor, France, by 23% within 15 years, experts predicted.
According to the newest long-range forecast from the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the British economy will stay close to the top of the global growth league tables and well ahead of most of Europe, including its historic rival, France, despite the shock caused by the dissolution of its European Union (EU) membership and the coronavirus pandemic. The announcement came following Boris Johnson’s historic trade and security deal.
The UK’s Digital Economy
According to Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of the CEBR, “People often forget that the UK’s largest economic sector is digital and creative.”
He said that the UK’s tech-based economy is Brexit-proof. It is also quite advantageous that the pandemic kicked the sector forward, dispelling all thoughts of gloomy economic prospects for the UK as long as they continue to attract talented people.
Evidence also suggests that as the vaccine comes on stream and the savings accumulated for the pandemic duration are released back into spending and investment, the UK economy’s resilience will shine through and help jobs and household income bounce back.
UK’s Economy Current State and Future Trajectory
At present, the UK lists an impressive 4.8 percent unemployment rate. By comparison, this rate is much lower than its EU trade counterparts, which happens to be 8.4 percent.
CEBR economists also affirmed that despite the controversial Brexit, the UK economy “continues to be one of the better performers in Europe.”
To date, CEBR remains to be the most accurate in tracking the impact of the pandemic among private-sector forecasters and commentators.
It initially projected a 4% loss of world output by March 4, amounting to a loss of £4.6 trillion, but augmented it to show a robust 5.3 percent growth in its 2021 forecast in light of the new official data.
According to McWilliams, the rollout of the vaccine for the novel coronavirus will help the world economy “bounce back quickly.”
He also shared that they are more worried that the “rapid bounce-back will lead to inflation, with shortages pushing up prices.”
“My colleagues have calculated about £200billion of savings in the UK as a result of the pandemic that is waiting to be spent. There will be similar build-ups of savings elsewhere,” he added.